Published: April 18, 2026 | By Lupealex Steel Market Analysis Team
The first half of 2026 has delivered a steel market defined by cautious optimism and uneven recovery. After the turbulence of the past two years, buyers and suppliers alike are asking the same question: where do steel prices 2026 go from here? With infrastructure spending accelerating in several major economies, shifting trade policies, and raw material costs that refuse to settle into a predictable pattern, the second half of the year promises both opportunity and risk for anyone in the steel supply chain.
In this steel market forecast, we break down the forces shaping pricing, examine what is happening region by region, and offer practical guidance for procurement teams preparing their H2 strategies. Whether you source flat products, long products, or specialty steel, understanding these dynamics is essential to protecting your margins.
Raw material costs remain the single largest input in steelmaking economics, and the picture heading into H2 2026 is mixed. Iron ore prices have traded in a relatively narrow band between $105 and $120 per tonne through Q1 and Q2, supported by steady demand from Asian blast furnaces but capped by record stockpiles at Chinese ports. The days of $150-plus iron ore appear behind us for now, but any supply disruption in Australia or Brazil could change that arithmetic quickly.
Coking coal tells a different story. Persistent logistical constraints in Queensland and strong demand from Indian steelmakers have kept premium hard coking coal elevated above $250 per tonne. For integrated mills, this keeps conversion costs stubbornly high and limits the scope for aggressive price reductions on finished products like hot rolled coil and heavy plate.
Scrap prices, which matter most for electric arc furnace (EAF) producers, have firmed through the first half of the year. Turkish import scrap has averaged around $385 per tonne CFR, reflecting both healthy demand from Mediterranean and Middle Eastern mini-mills and constrained collection rates in the United States and Europe. Because EAF production now accounts for roughly 30% of global output and is growing, scrap pricing increasingly acts as a floor under overall steel price trends.
Energy remains a structural cost factor, particularly in Europe. Natural gas prices have stabilized compared to the crisis levels of 2022-2023, but European mills still operate at an energy cost disadvantage relative to their counterparts in the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), now in its definitive phase, is adding $30 to $60 per tonne in effective carbon costs on imported steel, which paradoxically supports European domestic pricing even as it raises costs for buyers.
Meanwhile, mills investing in hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and green steel production face higher capital and operating costs that they are increasingly passing through to customers willing to pay the sustainability premium. For buyers in the automotive and renewable energy sectors, this "green premium" is becoming a standard line item in procurement budgets.
Construction steel prices are being pulled in two directions. Residential construction has cooled in markets where interest rates remain elevated, notably the United States, the United Kingdom, and parts of Western Europe. However, non-residential and infrastructure spending is more than compensating. The US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act continues to release funding, the EU is channeling recovery funds into transport and energy projects, and India's National Infrastructure Pipeline is driving record rebar and structural steel consumption.
The automotive sector, after years of semiconductor-related disruption, is running near full capacity in most regions. Electric vehicle production, which uses roughly 15-20% more steel per unit than a conventional car due to battery enclosures and reinforced platforms, is adding incremental demand for advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) and electrical steel grades. This supports pricing for premium flat products even when commodity grades come under pressure.
European hot rolled coil prices have traded between EUR 620 and EUR 680 per tonne ex-works through Q1-Q2 2026, finding support from CBAM-adjusted import costs and production discipline among major mills. ArcelorMittal, Salzgitter, and Tata Steel Europe have all implemented planned maintenance shutdowns, keeping supply aligned with subdued but stable demand. Rebar prices in Southern Europe have held around EUR 580-610 per tonne, driven by infrastructure work in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Looking into H2, we expect European prices to remain range-bound with a slight upward bias. Any recovery in German manufacturing output, which has been the continent's weak link, would provide the catalyst for a more meaningful price move. Buyers should watch Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data closely as a leading indicator.
China remains the gravitational centre of the global steel market. Chinese HRC export offers have hovered around $520-550 per tonne FOB through mid-2026, kept in check by government efforts to limit overproduction and by anti-dumping measures in an expanding list of destination markets. Domestic Chinese rebar prices have been sluggish, reflecting the ongoing contraction in the property development sector despite stimulus measures.
India stands out as the region's growth story. Domestic HRC prices have risen approximately 8% year-to-date, supported by infrastructure demand and the government's safeguard duties on certain flat steel imports. Southeast Asian markets, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, are seeing rising domestic production capacity that is beginning to displace Chinese imports, a structural shift that will reshape trade flows over the coming years.
US hot rolled coil prices have been the most volatile among major markets, swinging between $680 and $780 per short ton through the first half of 2026. Section 232 tariffs continue to insulate domestic producers, but rising EAF capacity from new mills in the South and Southwest is adding supply that moderates price spikes. Construction steel prices have been firm, supported by federal infrastructure spending and reshoring-related industrial construction.
In Latin America, Brazil's flat steel market has been stable, with Usiminas and Gerdau maintaining disciplined pricing. Mexican steel consumption is benefiting from nearshoring investment, with hot rolled coil demand from the automotive and appliance sectors showing double-digit growth year-over-year. This makes Mexico one of the most interesting demand stories globally heading into H2.
Based on our assessment of supply-demand fundamentals, raw material trajectories, and policy developments, the Lupealex Steel market analysis team sees the following scenario as most likely for the second half of 2026:
For procurement teams, the practical takeaway is clear: locking in supply agreements for H2 sooner rather than later reduces exposure to upside price risk. Diversifying supplier bases geographically, and building relationships with traders who can navigate complex trade policy environments, is no longer optional but a core competency. Reviewing your logistics and supply chain arrangements now will pay dividends when markets tighten.
The steel market in the second half of 2026 will reward buyers who plan ahead and penalize those who wait. Steel price trends point toward a modestly tighter market, and the growing complexity of trade regulations means that having an experienced, well-connected trading partner is more valuable than ever.
At Lupealex Steel, we help our clients navigate exactly these conditions. From sourcing hot rolled coil, cold rolled sheet, and rebar to managing logistics across multiple continents, our team provides the market intelligence and operational reliability that procurement professionals depend on. Browse our full product range or get in touch with our trading team to discuss your H2 2026 requirements. We are ready to help you secure the right material, at the right price, delivered on time.
